{"ok":true,"schema":"aios.world-model/1","attest":"8,26,48:480","name":"AIOS World-State Predictor","what":"A glass-box next-state predictor across every AIOS sense. It answers with the next state, the path it reasoned, its confidence, and the measured error against the baseline it has to beat — the interpretable lineage of a world-model.","senses":[{"sense":"motion","predicts":"the next position of a live vehicle","horizon":"2–60 s","interface":"POST /api/predict {sense:\"motion\",state:{lat,lon,heading,speed},horizon}","baseline":"hold — assume it stays put","unit":"metres of error","measured":{"unit":"m","samples":7512071,"predErr":31.695,"baseErr":72.257,"beatsBaseline":40.562,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.v0-20","samples":3147408,"predErr":19.627,"baseErr":17.694,"beats":-1.934},{"regime":"sim.v50-80","samples":2400731,"predErr":36.293,"baseErr":137.658,"beats":101.364},{"regime":"sim.v20-50","samples":1824106,"predErr":42.388,"baseErr":74.188,"beats":31.8},{"regime":"sim.v80","samples":139816,"predErr":84.874,"baseErr":152.353,"beats":67.479},{"regime":"real.v20-50","samples":7,"predErr":93.99,"baseErr":0,"beats":-93.99},{"regime":"real.v0-20","samples":2,"predErr":17.785,"baseErr":0,"beats":-17.785},{"regime":"real.v50-80","samples":1,"predErr":113.333,"baseErr":0,"beats":-113.333}]},"by_source":{"real":{"unit":"m","samples":10,"predErr":80.684,"baseErr":0,"beatsBaseline":-80.684,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"real.v20-50","samples":7,"predErr":93.99,"baseErr":0,"beats":-93.99},{"regime":"real.v0-20","samples":2,"predErr":17.785,"baseErr":0,"beats":-17.785},{"regime":"real.v50-80","samples":1,"predErr":113.333,"baseErr":0,"beats":-113.333}]},"sim":{"unit":"m","samples":7512061,"predErr":31.695,"baseErr":72.257,"beatsBaseline":40.562,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.v0-20","samples":3147408,"predErr":19.627,"baseErr":17.694,"beats":-1.934},{"regime":"sim.v50-80","samples":2400731,"predErr":36.293,"baseErr":137.658,"beats":101.364},{"regime":"sim.v20-50","samples":1824106,"predErr":42.388,"baseErr":74.188,"beats":31.8},{"regime":"sim.v80","samples":139816,"predErr":84.874,"baseErr":152.353,"beats":67.479}]}}},{"sense":"lattice","predicts":"the next cell of the 48-root state lattice (speed × heading × safety)","horizon":"seconds","interface":"POST /api/predict {sense:\"lattice\",model:\"motion\"|\"risk\",state}","baseline":"persistence — stay in the current cell","unit":"multi-class Brier","measured":{"unit":"brier","samples":11932129,"predErr":0.391,"baseErr":0.489,"beatsBaseline":0.097,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"motion.sim.v0-20","samples":3146555,"predErr":0.194,"baseErr":0.227,"beats":0.033},{"regime":"motion.sim.v50-80","samples":2400119,"predErr":0.587,"baseErr":0.745,"beats":0.158},{"regime":"risk.sim.v50-80","samples":2375942,"predErr":0.304,"baseErr":0.347,"beats":0.043},{"regime":"motion.sim.v20-50","samples":1824167,"predErr":0.418,"baseErr":0.51,"beats":0.092},{"regime":"risk.sim.v20-50","samples":1127744,"predErr":0.496,"baseErr":0.613,"beats":0.117},{"regime":"risk.sim.v0-20","samples":778987,"predErr":0.55,"baseErr":0.731,"beats":0.181},{"regime":"motion.sim.v80","samples":139815,"predErr":0.836,"baseErr":1.494,"beats":0.658},{"regime":"risk.sim.v80","samples":138784,"predErr":0.452,"baseErr":0.744,"beats":0.292},{"regime":"motion.real.v20-50","samples":7,"predErr":0.021,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.021},{"regime":"risk.real.v0-20","samples":3,"predErr":0.144,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.144},{"regime":"risk.real.v20-50","samples":3,"predErr":0.13,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.13},{"regime":"motion.real.v0-20","samples":2,"predErr":0.021,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.021},{"regime":"motion.real.v50-80","samples":1,"predErr":0.021,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.021}]},"by_source":{"real":{"unit":"brier","samples":16,"predErr":0.064,"baseErr":0,"beatsBaseline":-0.064,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"motion.real.v20-50","samples":7,"predErr":0.021,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.021},{"regime":"risk.real.v0-20","samples":3,"predErr":0.144,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.144},{"regime":"risk.real.v20-50","samples":3,"predErr":0.13,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.13},{"regime":"motion.real.v0-20","samples":2,"predErr":0.021,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.021},{"regime":"motion.real.v50-80","samples":1,"predErr":0.021,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.021}]},"sim":{"unit":"brier","samples":11932113,"predErr":0.391,"baseErr":0.489,"beatsBaseline":0.097,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"motion.sim.v0-20","samples":3146555,"predErr":0.194,"baseErr":0.227,"beats":0.033},{"regime":"motion.sim.v50-80","samples":2400119,"predErr":0.587,"baseErr":0.745,"beats":0.158},{"regime":"risk.sim.v50-80","samples":2375942,"predErr":0.304,"baseErr":0.347,"beats":0.043},{"regime":"motion.sim.v20-50","samples":1824167,"predErr":0.418,"baseErr":0.51,"beats":0.092},{"regime":"risk.sim.v20-50","samples":1127744,"predErr":0.496,"baseErr":0.613,"beats":0.117},{"regime":"risk.sim.v0-20","samples":778987,"predErr":0.55,"baseErr":0.731,"beats":0.181},{"regime":"motion.sim.v80","samples":139815,"predErr":0.836,"baseErr":1.494,"beats":0.658},{"regime":"risk.sim.v80","samples":138784,"predErr":0.452,"baseErr":0.744,"beats":0.292}]}}},{"sense":"risk","predicts":"P(≥1 safety event per vehicle in the window)","horizon":"20 s – 24 h","interface":"GET /api/taxi/risk-forecast (owner/insurer/ops)","baseline":"the fleet base rate","unit":"Brier","measured":{"unit":"brier","samples":3518654,"predErr":0.328,"baseErr":0.335,"beatsBaseline":0.007,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.v50-80","samples":1891077,"predErr":0.264,"baseErr":0.273,"beats":0.009},{"regime":"sim.v20-50","samples":898756,"predErr":0.228,"baseErr":0.236,"beats":0.008},{"regime":"sim.v0-20","samples":619500,"predErr":0.685,"baseErr":0.685,"beats":0},{"regime":"sim.v80","samples":109316,"predErr":0.237,"baseErr":0.245,"beats":0.008},{"regime":"real.v20-50","samples":3,"predErr":0.082,"baseErr":0.081,"beats":-0.001},{"regime":"real.v0-20","samples":2,"predErr":0.001,"baseErr":0.001,"beats":0}]},"by_source":{"real":{"unit":"brier","samples":5,"predErr":0.05,"baseErr":0.049,"beatsBaseline":-0.001,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"real.v20-50","samples":3,"predErr":0.082,"baseErr":0.081,"beats":-0.001},{"regime":"real.v0-20","samples":2,"predErr":0.001,"baseErr":0.001,"beats":0}]},"sim":{"unit":"brier","samples":3518649,"predErr":0.328,"baseErr":0.335,"beatsBaseline":0.007,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.v50-80","samples":1891077,"predErr":0.264,"baseErr":0.273,"beats":0.009},{"regime":"sim.v20-50","samples":898756,"predErr":0.228,"baseErr":0.236,"beats":0.008},{"regime":"sim.v0-20","samples":619500,"predErr":0.685,"baseErr":0.685,"beats":0},{"regime":"sim.v80","samples":109316,"predErr":0.237,"baseErr":0.245,"beats":0.008}]}}},{"sense":"drift","predicts":"the same next position, at several horizons at once","horizon":"4 / 8 / 16 / 32 s","interface":"GET /api/predict/measure?sense=drift&horizons=4,8,16,32","baseline":"hold — assume it stays put","unit":"metres of error","measured":{"unit":"m","samples":15401866,"predErr":61.452,"baseErr":99.938,"beatsBaseline":38.486,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.h8","samples":4874445,"predErr":27.289,"baseErr":56.455,"beats":29.166},{"regime":"sim.h4","samples":4195262,"predErr":15.085,"baseErr":27.601,"beats":12.516},{"regime":"sim.h32","samples":3421467,"predErr":157.561,"baseErr":229.925,"beats":72.364},{"regime":"sim.h16","samples":2910667,"predErr":72.519,"baseErr":124.223,"beats":51.703},{"regime":"real.h4","samples":13,"predErr":43.113,"baseErr":0,"beats":-43.113},{"regime":"real.h8","samples":7,"predErr":64.468,"baseErr":0,"beats":-64.468},{"regime":"real.h16","samples":5,"predErr":135.12,"baseErr":0,"beats":-135.12},{"regime":"real.h32","samples":1,"predErr":106.69,"baseErr":0,"beats":-106.69}]},"by_source":{"real":{"unit":"m","samples":26,"predErr":69.001,"baseErr":0,"beatsBaseline":-69.001,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"real.h4","samples":13,"predErr":43.113,"baseErr":0,"beats":-43.113},{"regime":"real.h8","samples":7,"predErr":64.468,"baseErr":0,"beats":-64.468},{"regime":"real.h16","samples":5,"predErr":135.12,"baseErr":0,"beats":-135.12},{"regime":"real.h32","samples":1,"predErr":106.69,"baseErr":0,"beats":-106.69}]},"sim":{"unit":"m","samples":15401840,"predErr":61.452,"baseErr":99.938,"beatsBaseline":38.486,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.h8","samples":4874445,"predErr":27.289,"baseErr":56.455,"beats":29.166},{"regime":"sim.h4","samples":4195262,"predErr":15.085,"baseErr":27.601,"beats":12.516},{"regime":"sim.h32","samples":3421467,"predErr":157.561,"baseErr":229.925,"beats":72.364},{"regime":"sim.h16","samples":2910667,"predErr":72.519,"baseErr":124.223,"beats":51.703}]}}},{"sense":"drift_snap","predicts":"the F4 snap-to-canonical variant of dead-reckoning","horizon":"same horizons","interface":"GET /api/predict/measure?sense=drift","baseline":"RAW dead-reckoning — so a win means the lattice correction genuinely pays","unit":"metres of error","measured":{"unit":"m","samples":15401866,"predErr":88.311,"baseErr":61.452,"beatsBaseline":-26.86,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.h8","samples":4874445,"predErr":45.729,"baseErr":27.289,"beats":-18.44},{"regime":"sim.h4","samples":4195262,"predErr":23.474,"baseErr":15.085,"beats":-8.389},{"regime":"sim.h32","samples":3421467,"predErr":212.132,"baseErr":157.561,"beats":-54.571},{"regime":"sim.h16","samples":2910667,"predErr":107.526,"baseErr":72.519,"beats":-35.007},{"regime":"real.h4","samples":13,"predErr":44.482,"baseErr":43.113,"beats":-1.369},{"regime":"real.h8","samples":7,"predErr":88.924,"baseErr":64.468,"beats":-24.455},{"regime":"real.h16","samples":5,"predErr":186.689,"baseErr":135.12,"beats":-51.569},{"regime":"real.h32","samples":1,"predErr":355.633,"baseErr":106.69,"beats":-248.943}]},"by_source":{"real":{"unit":"m","samples":26,"predErr":95.762,"baseErr":69.001,"beatsBaseline":-26.761,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"real.h4","samples":13,"predErr":44.482,"baseErr":43.113,"beats":-1.369},{"regime":"real.h8","samples":7,"predErr":88.924,"baseErr":64.468,"beats":-24.455},{"regime":"real.h16","samples":5,"predErr":186.689,"baseErr":135.12,"beats":-51.569},{"regime":"real.h32","samples":1,"predErr":355.633,"baseErr":106.69,"beats":-248.943}]},"sim":{"unit":"m","samples":15401840,"predErr":88.311,"baseErr":61.452,"beatsBaseline":-26.86,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.h8","samples":4874445,"predErr":45.729,"baseErr":27.289,"beats":-18.44},{"regime":"sim.h4","samples":4195262,"predErr":23.474,"baseErr":15.085,"beats":-8.389},{"regime":"sim.h32","samples":3421467,"predErr":212.132,"baseErr":157.561,"beats":-54.571},{"regime":"sim.h16","samples":2910667,"predErr":107.526,"baseErr":72.519,"beats":-35.007}]}}},{"sense":"orientation","predicts":"the next orientation of a networked craft (the 24-cell predictor in cosmos-infinite)","horizon":"one network frame","interface":"in-client; reports to POST /api/predict/metrics","baseline":"last-known orientation","unit":"degrees","measured":{"unit":"deg","samples":439769,"predErr":0.516,"baseErr":2.031,"beatsBaseline":1.514,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"c3","samples":416042,"predErr":0.499,"baseErr":2.029,"beats":1.531},{"regime":"c4","samples":23264,"predErr":0.639,"baseErr":2.059,"beats":1.42},{"regime":"c5","samples":408,"predErr":11.245,"baseErr":2.215,"beats":-9.03},{"regime":"c6","samples":28,"predErr":7.849,"baseErr":2.322,"beats":-5.526},{"regime":"c2","samples":27,"predErr":0.847,"baseErr":0,"beats":-0.847}]},"by_source":{"real":null,"sim":null},"source_note":"no real-device samples yet — this figure is from the behavioural SIM"},{"sense":"demand","predicts":"the share of fleet activity per zone","horizon":"5 min – 24 h","interface":"POST /api/predict {sense:\"demand\"} (operator-gated)","baseline":"persistence — the zone shares as they are right now","unit":"mean absolute share error","measured":{"unit":"share","samples":242922,"predErr":0.117,"baseErr":0.03,"beatsBaseline":-0.087,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.w5m","samples":242922,"predErr":0.117,"baseErr":0.03,"beats":-0.087}]},"by_source":{"real":null,"sim":{"unit":"share","samples":242922,"predErr":0.117,"baseErr":0.03,"beatsBaseline":-0.087,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.w5m","samples":242922,"predErr":0.117,"baseErr":0.03,"beats":-0.087}]}},"source_note":"no real-device samples yet — this figure is from the behavioural SIM"}],"geometry":{"lattice":"F4 root system / 24-cell — 48 COMPUTED roots (24 long = the 24-cell's vertices, 24 short = its dual)","validation":{"ok":true,"roots":48,"long":24,"short":24},"role":"the shared state ENCODER: every sense's state maps into one 4D space and snaps to a canonical root, so senses share a coordinate system and a drift handle","learned_chain":[{"model":"risk","observations":926733,"occupied_roots":39,"hold_rate":0.771},{"model":"motion","observations":530304,"occupied_roots":42,"hold_rate":0.795}],"endpoint":"/api/predict/transitions"},"drift":{"curve":[{"horizon_s":4,"source":"real","samples":13,"predErr_m":43.113,"holdErr_m":0,"beats_hold_m":-43.113},{"horizon_s":4,"source":"sim","samples":4195262,"predErr_m":15.085,"holdErr_m":27.601,"beats_hold_m":12.516},{"horizon_s":8,"source":"real","samples":7,"predErr_m":64.468,"holdErr_m":0,"beats_hold_m":-64.468},{"horizon_s":8,"source":"sim","samples":4874445,"predErr_m":27.289,"holdErr_m":56.455,"beats_hold_m":29.166},{"horizon_s":16,"source":"real","samples":5,"predErr_m":135.12,"holdErr_m":0,"beats_hold_m":-135.12},{"horizon_s":16,"source":"sim","samples":2910667,"predErr_m":72.519,"holdErr_m":124.223,"beats_hold_m":51.703},{"horizon_s":32,"source":"real","samples":1,"predErr_m":106.69,"holdErr_m":0,"beats_hold_m":-106.69},{"horizon_s":32,"source":"sim","samples":3421467,"predErr_m":157.561,"holdErr_m":229.925,"beats_hold_m":72.364}],"snap_curve":[{"horizon_s":4,"source":"real","snapErr_m":44.482,"rawErr_m":43.113,"snap_beats_raw_m":-1.369},{"horizon_s":4,"source":"sim","snapErr_m":23.474,"rawErr_m":15.085,"snap_beats_raw_m":-8.389},{"horizon_s":8,"source":"real","snapErr_m":88.924,"rawErr_m":64.468,"snap_beats_raw_m":-24.455},{"horizon_s":8,"source":"sim","snapErr_m":45.729,"rawErr_m":27.289,"snap_beats_raw_m":-18.44},{"horizon_s":16,"source":"real","snapErr_m":186.689,"rawErr_m":135.12,"snap_beats_raw_m":-51.569},{"horizon_s":16,"source":"sim","snapErr_m":107.526,"rawErr_m":72.519,"snap_beats_raw_m":-35.007},{"horizon_s":32,"source":"real","snapErr_m":355.633,"rawErr_m":106.69,"snap_beats_raw_m":-248.943},{"horizon_s":32,"source":"sim","snapErr_m":212.132,"rawErr_m":157.561,"snap_beats_raw_m":-54.571}],"note":"Short horizons are strong, long horizons drift — every world-model does. This is that curve, measured on live traffic, not asserted. snap_curve tests whether the F4 snap-to-canonical actually beats raw dead-reckoning; a negative number means it does NOT, and it stays on the board."},"rails":["MEASURE, DON'T ASSERT — nothing is called a prediction here without a live error-vs-baseline on /api/predict/metrics.","GLASS BOX — every answer carries its evidence count, its confidence and the path it reasoned; no opaque weights.","LOSSES STAY ON THE BOARD — a sense that does not beat its baseline is shown as a negative number, never hidden."],"measurement":{"mode":"continuous — the server measures itself on a tick, nobody has to call anything","tick_period_s":4,"ticks":139777,"last_tick_s_ago":4,"horizons":{"motion":8,"lattice":8,"risk":16,"drift":[4,8,16,32],"demand_min":5},"buffered_senses":5,"error":null,"cluster":{"instance":"0d01140e-80e9-4835·7927bf","role":"leader","role_note":"this instance drives the measurement tick","leader":"0d01140e-80e9-4835·7927bf","replicas_seen":1,"lease_expires_in_s":26,"lease_ttl_s":30,"ticks_skipped_as_follower":0,"lease_error":null,"events":[{"t":1792588116834,"kind":"acquired","instance":"0d01140e-80e9-4835·7927bf","detail":"this instance now drives the measurement tick"},{"t":1792588116828,"kind":"replicas","instance":"0d01140e-80e9-4835·7927bf","detail":"2 instances live — only the lease holder is measuring, so the board is not double-counted"}],"why":"Exactly one instance measures at a time, decided by an atomic lease rather than by configuration. Scaling to more replicas cannot double-count the board, and every hand-over is announced here and in the server log."},"why":"Horizons are multiples of the tick period so a matured sample is scored on the very next pass; anything scored later than 1.25x its horizon is dropped rather than blamed on the model."},"honest":"Read the source split before the numbers. The public fleet is a behavioural SIM, and its motion generator is itself dead-reckoning (position advanced by heading and speed) — which is exactly what the motion and drift predictors compute. So a win over the hold baseline on sim traffic is largely an INSTRUMENT CHECK: it proves the pipeline measures correctly end to end, not that the engine predicts the real world. Field results require real-device samples, tagged 'real' above and reported separately; every sense that has none says so. Real Blackbox IoT units feed the identical pipeline, unchanged.","sources":{"real":"devices not flagged sim — a real unit's samples are never averaged into the sim figures","sim":"the behavioural fleet; generator is dead-reckoning + heading noise (see /api/av/scenario)","why_it_matters":"the whole claim of this engine is 'measured, not asserted'. Measuring a simulator that shares the predictor's own model would quietly break that claim, so the split is structural rather than a footnote."},"reproduce":{"board":"curl https://realaios.com/api/predict/metrics","predict":"curl -X POST https://realaios.com/api/predict -H \"content-type: application/json\" -d '{\"sense\":\"motion\",\"state\":{\"lat\":-33.93,\"lon\":18.86,\"heading\":120,\"speed\":58},\"horizon\":8}'","lattice":"curl -X POST https://realaios.com/api/predict -H \"content-type: application/json\" -d '{\"sense\":\"lattice\",\"state\":{\"speedKmh\":62,\"heading\":135,\"score\":88}}'","chain":"curl https://realaios.com/api/predict/transitions","drift":"curl 'https://realaios.com/api/predict/measure?sense=drift&horizons=4,8,16,32'  # call repeatedly","geometry":"curl https://realaios.com/api/lattice/f4","scenario":"curl https://realaios.com/api/av/scenario","network":"curl https://realaios.com/api/taxi/routes            # 3363 real minibus-taxi routes, 4 sources","rank_demand":"curl https://realaios.com/api/taxi/rank-demand   # observed CPTR passengers per rank","rank_graph":"curl 'https://realaios.com/api/taxi/rank-graph?from=Ndongeni%20Rank'","anomalies":"curl https://realaios.com/api/taxi/anomalies -H 'x-aios-key: <operator>'","economics":"curl https://realaios.com/api/taxi/route-economics -H 'x-aios-key: <operator>'"},"built_on_this":[{"surface":"/api/taxi/anomalies","is":"route deviation + per-vehicle residual bands — the prediction error turned into an operator signal"},{"surface":"/api/taxi/rank-demand","is":"observed CPTR demand per rank — 254 ranks, 220 surveyed"},{"surface":"/api/taxi/rank-graph","is":"the origin-destination graph, weighted by observed passengers"},{"surface":"/api/taxi/route-economics","is":"demand x fare against measured safety exposure"}],"updated":1793147361334}