{"ok":true,"schema":"aios.world-model/1","attest":"8,26,48:480","name":"AIOS World-State Predictor","what":"A glass-box next-state predictor across every AIOS sense. It answers with the next state, the path it reasoned, its confidence, and the measured error against the baseline it has to beat — the interpretable lineage of a world-model.","senses":[{"sense":"motion","predicts":"the next position of a live vehicle","horizon":"2–60 s","interface":"POST /api/predict {sense:\"motion\",state:{lat,lon,heading,speed},horizon}","baseline":"hold — assume it stays put","unit":"metres of error","measured":{"unit":"m","samples":1944,"predErr":32.891,"baseErr":67.489,"beatsBaseline":34.597,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.v0-20","samples":1159,"predErr":25.622,"baseErr":23.936,"beats":-1.686},{"regime":"sim.v50-80","samples":568,"predErr":24.207,"baseErr":141.886,"beats":117.679},{"regime":"sim.v20-50","samples":194,"predErr":96.059,"baseErr":99.702,"beats":3.642},{"regime":"sim.v80","samples":23,"predErr":80.876,"baseErr":153.179,"beats":72.303}]},"by_source":{"real":null,"sim":{"unit":"m","samples":1944,"predErr":32.891,"baseErr":67.489,"beatsBaseline":34.597,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.v0-20","samples":1159,"predErr":25.622,"baseErr":23.936,"beats":-1.686},{"regime":"sim.v50-80","samples":568,"predErr":24.207,"baseErr":141.886,"beats":117.679},{"regime":"sim.v20-50","samples":194,"predErr":96.059,"baseErr":99.702,"beats":3.642},{"regime":"sim.v80","samples":23,"predErr":80.876,"baseErr":153.179,"beats":72.303}]}},"source_note":"no real-device samples yet — this figure is from the behavioural SIM"},{"sense":"lattice","predicts":"the next cell of the 48-root state lattice (speed × heading × safety)","horizon":"seconds","interface":"POST /api/predict {sense:\"lattice\",model:\"motion\"|\"risk\",state}","baseline":"persistence — stay in the current cell","unit":"multi-class Brier","measured":{"unit":"brier","samples":2544,"predErr":0.249,"baseErr":0.292,"beatsBaseline":0.042,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"motion.sim.v0-20","samples":1136,"predErr":0.139,"baseErr":0.15,"beats":0.01},{"regime":"motion.sim.v50-80","samples":562,"predErr":0.413,"baseErr":0.484,"beats":0.071},{"regime":"risk.sim.v50-80","samples":558,"predErr":0.217,"baseErr":0.247,"beats":0.03},{"regime":"motion.sim.v20-50","samples":187,"predErr":0.32,"baseErr":0.374,"beats":0.054},{"regime":"risk.sim.v20-50","samples":43,"predErr":0.559,"baseErr":0.651,"beats":0.092},{"regime":"risk.sim.v80","samples":29,"predErr":0.652,"baseErr":1.172,"beats":0.521},{"regime":"motion.sim.v80","samples":23,"predErr":0.714,"baseErr":1.043,"beats":0.33},{"regime":"risk.sim.v0-20","samples":6,"predErr":0.649,"baseErr":1,"beats":0.351}]},"by_source":{"real":null,"sim":{"unit":"brier","samples":2544,"predErr":0.249,"baseErr":0.292,"beatsBaseline":0.042,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"motion.sim.v0-20","samples":1136,"predErr":0.139,"baseErr":0.15,"beats":0.01},{"regime":"motion.sim.v50-80","samples":562,"predErr":0.413,"baseErr":0.484,"beats":0.071},{"regime":"risk.sim.v50-80","samples":558,"predErr":0.217,"baseErr":0.247,"beats":0.03},{"regime":"motion.sim.v20-50","samples":187,"predErr":0.32,"baseErr":0.374,"beats":0.054},{"regime":"risk.sim.v20-50","samples":43,"predErr":0.559,"baseErr":0.651,"beats":0.092},{"regime":"risk.sim.v80","samples":29,"predErr":0.652,"baseErr":1.172,"beats":0.521},{"regime":"motion.sim.v80","samples":23,"predErr":0.714,"baseErr":1.043,"beats":0.33},{"regime":"risk.sim.v0-20","samples":6,"predErr":0.649,"baseErr":1,"beats":0.351}]}},"source_note":"no real-device samples yet — this figure is from the behavioural SIM"},{"sense":"risk","predicts":"P(≥1 safety event per vehicle in the window)","horizon":"20 s – 24 h","interface":"GET /api/taxi/risk-forecast (owner/insurer/ops)","baseline":"the fleet base rate","unit":"Brier","measured":{"unit":"brier","samples":498,"predErr":0.209,"baseErr":0.218,"beatsBaseline":0.009,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.v50-80","samples":437,"predErr":0.208,"baseErr":0.218,"beats":0.009},{"regime":"sim.v20-50","samples":40,"predErr":0.198,"baseErr":0.201,"beats":0.003},{"regime":"sim.v80","samples":20,"predErr":0.226,"baseErr":0.233,"beats":0.006},{"regime":"sim.v0-20","samples":1,"predErr":0.711,"baseErr":0.711,"beats":0}]},"by_source":{"real":null,"sim":{"unit":"brier","samples":498,"predErr":0.209,"baseErr":0.218,"beatsBaseline":0.009,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.v50-80","samples":437,"predErr":0.208,"baseErr":0.218,"beats":0.009},{"regime":"sim.v20-50","samples":40,"predErr":0.198,"baseErr":0.201,"beats":0.003},{"regime":"sim.v80","samples":20,"predErr":0.226,"baseErr":0.233,"beats":0.006},{"regime":"sim.v0-20","samples":1,"predErr":0.711,"baseErr":0.711,"beats":0}]}},"source_note":"no real-device samples yet — this figure is from the behavioural SIM"},{"sense":"drift","predicts":"the same next position, at several horizons at once","horizon":"4 / 8 / 16 / 32 s","interface":"GET /api/predict/measure?sense=drift&horizons=4,8,16,32","baseline":"hold — assume it stays put","unit":"metres of error","measured":{"unit":"m","samples":7956,"predErr":57.684,"baseErr":107.534,"beatsBaseline":49.85,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.h4","samples":3384,"predErr":22.436,"baseErr":37.807,"beats":15.371},{"regime":"sim.h8","samples":1908,"predErr":33.527,"baseErr":68.309,"beats":34.781},{"regime":"sim.h16","samples":1530,"predErr":87.07,"baseErr":166.419,"beats":79.349},{"regime":"sim.h32","samples":1134,"predErr":163.864,"baseErr":302.156,"beats":138.292}]},"by_source":{"real":null,"sim":{"unit":"m","samples":7956,"predErr":57.684,"baseErr":107.534,"beatsBaseline":49.85,"wins":true,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.h4","samples":3384,"predErr":22.436,"baseErr":37.807,"beats":15.371},{"regime":"sim.h8","samples":1908,"predErr":33.527,"baseErr":68.309,"beats":34.781},{"regime":"sim.h16","samples":1530,"predErr":87.07,"baseErr":166.419,"beats":79.349},{"regime":"sim.h32","samples":1134,"predErr":163.864,"baseErr":302.156,"beats":138.292}]}},"source_note":"no real-device samples yet — this figure is from the behavioural SIM"},{"sense":"drift_snap","predicts":"the F4 snap-to-canonical variant of dead-reckoning","horizon":"same horizons","interface":"GET /api/predict/measure?sense=drift","baseline":"RAW dead-reckoning — so a win means the lattice correction genuinely pays","unit":"metres of error","measured":{"unit":"m","samples":7956,"predErr":81.629,"baseErr":57.684,"beatsBaseline":-23.945,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.h4","samples":3384,"predErr":30.765,"baseErr":22.436,"beats":-8.329},{"regime":"sim.h8","samples":1908,"predErr":51.78,"baseErr":33.527,"beats":-18.252},{"regime":"sim.h16","samples":1530,"predErr":124.901,"baseErr":87.07,"beats":-37.831},{"regime":"sim.h32","samples":1134,"predErr":225.249,"baseErr":163.864,"beats":-61.385}]},"by_source":{"real":null,"sim":{"unit":"m","samples":7956,"predErr":81.629,"baseErr":57.684,"beatsBaseline":-23.945,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.h4","samples":3384,"predErr":30.765,"baseErr":22.436,"beats":-8.329},{"regime":"sim.h8","samples":1908,"predErr":51.78,"baseErr":33.527,"beats":-18.252},{"regime":"sim.h16","samples":1530,"predErr":124.901,"baseErr":87.07,"beats":-37.831},{"regime":"sim.h32","samples":1134,"predErr":225.249,"baseErr":163.864,"beats":-61.385}]}},"source_note":"no real-device samples yet — this figure is from the behavioural SIM"},{"sense":"orientation","predicts":"the next orientation of a networked craft (the 24-cell predictor in cosmos-infinite)","horizon":"one network frame","interface":"in-client; reports to POST /api/predict/metrics","baseline":"last-known orientation","unit":"degrees","measured":null,"by_source":{"real":null,"sim":null},"source_note":"no real-device samples yet — this figure is from the behavioural SIM"},{"sense":"demand","predicts":"the share of fleet activity per zone","horizon":"5 min – 24 h","interface":"POST /api/predict {sense:\"demand\"} (operator-gated)","baseline":"persistence — the zone shares as they are right now","unit":"mean absolute share error","honest":"the zone×hour density has learned nothing on this fleet yet, so what is being scored is the time-of-day prior alone, over very few in-catchment vehicles — a thin test, reported as such","measured":{"unit":"share","samples":8,"predErr":0.375,"baseErr":0.25,"beatsBaseline":-0.125,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.w5m","samples":8,"predErr":0.375,"baseErr":0.25,"beats":-0.125}]},"by_source":{"real":null,"sim":{"unit":"share","samples":8,"predErr":0.375,"baseErr":0.25,"beatsBaseline":-0.125,"wins":false,"regimes":[{"regime":"sim.w5m","samples":8,"predErr":0.375,"baseErr":0.25,"beats":-0.125}]}},"source_note":"no real-device samples yet — this figure is from the behavioural SIM"}],"geometry":{"lattice":"F4 root system / 24-cell — 48 COMPUTED roots (24 long = the 24-cell's vertices, 24 short = its dual)","validation":{"ok":true,"roots":48,"long":24,"short":24},"role":"the shared state ENCODER: every sense's state maps into one 4D space and snaps to a canonical root, so senses share a coordinate system and a drift handle","learned_chain":[{"model":"risk","observations":2784,"occupied_roots":21,"hold_rate":0.808},{"model":"motion","observations":12106,"occupied_roots":35,"hold_rate":0.883}],"endpoint":"/api/predict/transitions"},"drift":{"curve":[{"horizon_s":4,"source":"sim","samples":3384,"predErr_m":22.436,"holdErr_m":37.807,"beats_hold_m":15.371},{"horizon_s":8,"source":"sim","samples":1908,"predErr_m":33.527,"holdErr_m":68.309,"beats_hold_m":34.781},{"horizon_s":16,"source":"sim","samples":1530,"predErr_m":87.07,"holdErr_m":166.419,"beats_hold_m":79.349},{"horizon_s":32,"source":"sim","samples":1134,"predErr_m":163.864,"holdErr_m":302.156,"beats_hold_m":138.292}],"snap_curve":[{"horizon_s":4,"source":"sim","snapErr_m":30.765,"rawErr_m":22.436,"snap_beats_raw_m":-8.329},{"horizon_s":8,"source":"sim","snapErr_m":51.78,"rawErr_m":33.527,"snap_beats_raw_m":-18.252},{"horizon_s":16,"source":"sim","snapErr_m":124.901,"rawErr_m":87.07,"snap_beats_raw_m":-37.831},{"horizon_s":32,"source":"sim","snapErr_m":225.249,"rawErr_m":163.864,"snap_beats_raw_m":-61.385}],"note":"Short horizons are strong, long horizons drift — every world-model does. This is that curve, measured on live traffic, not asserted. snap_curve tests whether the F4 snap-to-canonical actually beats raw dead-reckoning; a negative number means it does NOT, and it stays on the board."},"rails":["MEASURE, DON'T ASSERT — nothing is called a prediction here without a live error-vs-baseline on /api/predict/metrics.","GLASS BOX — every answer carries its evidence count, its confidence and the path it reasoned; no opaque weights.","LOSSES STAY ON THE BOARD — a sense that does not beat its baseline is shown as a negative number, never hidden."],"measurement":{"mode":"continuous — the server measures itself on a tick, nobody has to call anything","tick_period_s":4,"ticks":450,"last_tick_s_ago":3,"horizons":{"motion":8,"lattice":8,"risk":16,"drift":[4,8,16,32],"demand_min":5},"buffered_senses":4,"error":null,"cluster":{"instance":"47d94940-d623-40e8·9d9e81","role":"leader","role_note":"this instance drives the measurement tick","leader":"47d94940-d623-40e8·9d9e81","replicas_seen":1,"lease_expires_in_s":11,"lease_ttl_s":30,"ticks_skipped_as_follower":0,"lease_error":null,"events":[{"t":1786912495513,"kind":"acquired","instance":"47d94940-d623-40e8·9d9e81","detail":"this instance now drives the measurement tick"},{"t":1786912495464,"kind":"replicas","instance":"47d94940-d623-40e8·9d9e81","detail":"2 instances live — only the lease holder is measuring, so the board is not double-counted"}],"why":"Exactly one instance measures at a time, decided by an atomic lease rather than by configuration. Scaling to more replicas cannot double-count the board, and every hand-over is announced here and in the server log."},"why":"Horizons are multiples of the tick period so a matured sample is scored on the very next pass; anything scored later than 1.25x its horizon is dropped rather than blamed on the model."},"honest":"Read the source split before the numbers. The public fleet is a behavioural SIM, and its motion generator is itself dead-reckoning (position advanced by heading and speed) — which is exactly what the motion and drift predictors compute. So a win over the hold baseline on sim traffic is largely an INSTRUMENT CHECK: it proves the pipeline measures correctly end to end, not that the engine predicts the real world. Field results require real-device samples, tagged 'real' above and reported separately; every sense that has none says so. Real Blackbox IoT units feed the identical pipeline, unchanged.","sources":{"real":"devices not flagged sim — a real unit's samples are never averaged into the sim figures","sim":"the behavioural fleet; generator is dead-reckoning + heading noise (see /api/av/scenario)","why_it_matters":"the whole claim of this engine is 'measured, not asserted'. Measuring a simulator that shares the predictor's own model would quietly break that claim, so the split is structural rather than a footnote."},"reproduce":{"board":"curl https://realaios.com/api/predict/metrics","predict":"curl -X POST https://realaios.com/api/predict -H \"content-type: application/json\" -d '{\"sense\":\"motion\",\"state\":{\"lat\":-33.93,\"lon\":18.86,\"heading\":120,\"speed\":58},\"horizon\":8}'","lattice":"curl -X POST https://realaios.com/api/predict -H \"content-type: application/json\" -d '{\"sense\":\"lattice\",\"state\":{\"speedKmh\":62,\"heading\":135,\"score\":88}}'","chain":"curl https://realaios.com/api/predict/transitions","drift":"curl 'https://realaios.com/api/predict/measure?sense=drift&horizons=4,8,16,32'  # call repeatedly","geometry":"curl https://realaios.com/api/lattice/f4","scenario":"curl https://realaios.com/api/av/scenario"},"updated":1786914294187}